Chinese Espionage: The Hidden Chamber; Part 1

During my recent brief hiatus from blogging, I submersed myself into researching an old issue that partially resurfaced one week ago today, and that has plagued and confounded U.S. intelligence for decades. The issue: Chinese espionage against the United States. The issue once again came partially to light on 11 February, 2008 when the Feds arrested four people - including a Pentagon official - on charges of spying for communist China. The Pentagon official, Gregg Bergersen, soon was released on bond, and is awaiting court action. His release sent a strong signal that American officials simply do not recognize the extent and the threat of Chinese espionage against this country. In truth, China maintains an aggressive, thriving operation aimed at stealing our national secrets. This operation is a hidden chamber within the homeland. It exists, unseen, throughout America. Today marks the beginning of a series aimed at shedding light on just a portion of that chamber and its contents. First up: The big question, weighing the chances of Chinese military success against the United States.

Weighing the Chances
In 1996, an analyst for the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island sent an urgent message to a superior: "Same outcome every time. Serious implications for natsec." The analyst's unit had run yet another version of war game scenarios pitting the United States against the Peoples Republic of China. Traditionally, American military planners had pooh-poohed the notion of a serious China threat. After all, the planners reasoned, the PRC could not realistically sustain an expeditionary force in the field; was limited by only a brown water naval capability; and was far more interested in defending its borders than expanding outward.

In the 1990's, though, reports trickled out that China was beefing up its military. Among other developments, the PRC had acquired in-flight refueling capabilities for strategic bombing forces, and was moving rapidly toward a full capacity blue water navy. The U.S. defense community reeled at the discovery that China owned a number of ICBMs aimed at North America.

Suddenly, the same analysts who believed the world was a safer place following the demise of the Soviet Union were staying awake nights, envisioning war between the U.S. and China. American war games - which long had featured a Soviet adversary - now costarred the PRC.

A popular scenario centered around the island nation of Taiwan. The scenario played out as follows.

Taiwan renounces its claim as the legitimate political seat of China, and concurrently declares itself the independent Republic of Taiwan. On the mainland, the outraged government swiftly sets up a submarine blockade that will strangle the Taiwanese lifeblood of trade. In the United States, frightened citizens flood Congressional switchboards. The callers worry that if our major trading partner, Taiwan, remains under blockade, millions of Americans will lose their jobs. World leaders urge caution on all sides, while Taiwan insists it will not be subjugated. The U.S. government issues an ultimatum: Beijing must withdraw its forces or face sanctions. Beijing ignores the threat. Washington quickly revokes the visas of tens of thousands of Chinese university students, and expels thousands of Chinese diplomats and businessmen. Tensions escalate. Communist China shoots down an American P-3 Orion surveillance aircraft while it is performing a routine sweep around Taiwan. China refuses international demands for an apology. The Orion crew is not accounted for, and China will not disclose the crew's fate. American activists charge the United States with not doing enough to hunt for the missing crewmembers. As both domestic and international tempers soar, American warships move into the East China Sea. One of the ships is "locked on" by a Chinese missile. The American captain makes the decision he has been trained for. He launches a pre-emptive strike. Over the course of the next few days, all Hell breaks loose...

The war game scenario was eerily realistic. The projected outcome was frightening. Time after time after time, when U.S. war planners enacted the game, a single winner emerged: China. Hence, the analyst's 1996 urgent message, reporting serious implications for national security. Most alarming of all, however, was yet another discovery: China somehow obtained the game results. In another memo to superiors, the analyst wrote: "They know we expect to lose." To that one analyst, this empowered Beijing to a degree never before known.

"The chances are weighed, and the outcome is undisputed," the anaylst wrote. "The primary question now is whether Beijing will choose to act." Thus began a new era of China-watching by a small cadre of specialists trying desperately to read signs of China's intent.

Next in the series: A Decade of Signs.